Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Ranks With Application to Ranking Institutions

Diaa Al Mohamad; Jelle J. Goeman; Erik W. van Zwet

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arXiv · 1812.05507

Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Ranks With Application to Ranking Institutions

Diaa Al Mohamad·Jelle J. Goeman·Erik W. van Zwet

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Abstract

When a ranking of institutions such as medical centers or universities is based on an indicator provided with a standard error, confidence intervals should be calculated to assess the quality of these ranks. We consider the problem of constructing simultaneous confidence intervals for the ranks of means based on an observed sample. For this aim, the only available method from the literature uses Monte-Carlo simulations and is highly anticonservative especially when the means are close to each other or have ties. We present a novel method based on Tukey's honest significant difference test (HSD). Our new method is on the contrary conservative when there are no ties. By properly rescaling these two methods to the nominal confidence level, they surprisingly perform very similarly. The Monte-Carlo method is however unscalable when the number of institutions is large than 30 to 50 and stays thus anticonservative. We provide extensive simulations to support our claims and the two methods are compared in terms of their simultaneous coverage and their efficiency. We provide a data analysis for 64 hospitals in the Netherlands and compare both methods. Software for our new methods is available online in package ICRanks downloadable from CRAN. Supplementary materials include supplementary R code for the simulations and proofs of the propositions presented in this paper.

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Diaa Al Mohamad, Jelle J. Goeman, Erik W. van Zwet. 2018-12-11. Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Ranks With Application to Ranking Institutions. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.05507

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