Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Stochastic Control: A Data-Driven Approach

Abstract

Standard stochastic control methods assume that the probability distribution of uncertain variables is available. Unfortunately, in practice, obtaining accurate distribution information is a challenging task. To resolve this issue, we investigate the problem of designing a control policy that is robust against errors in the empirical distribution obtained from data. This problem can be formulated as a two-player zero-sum dynamic game problem, where the action space of the adversarial player is a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution. We propose computationally tractable value and policy iteration algorithms with explicit estimates of the number of iterations required for constructing an $\epsilon$-optimal policy. We show that the contraction property of associated Bellman operators extends a single-stage out-of-sample performance guarantee, obtained using a measure concentration inequality, to the corresponding multi-stage guarantee without any degradation in the confidence level. In addition, we characterize an explicit form of the optimal distributionally robust control policy and the worst-case distribution policy for linear-quadratic problems with Wasserstein penalty. Our study indicates that dynamic programming and Kantorovich duality play a critical role in solving and analyzing the Wasserstein distributionally robust stochastic control problems.