Two-Line Element Estimation Using Machine Learning

Rasit Abay; Sudantha Balage; Melrose Brown; Russell Boyce

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arXiv · 1902.04189

Two-Line Element Estimation Using Machine Learning

Rasit Abay·Sudantha Balage·Melrose Brown·Russell Boyce

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Abstract

Two-line elements are widely used for space operations to predict the orbit with a moderate accuracy for 2-3 days. Local optimization methods, such as the nonlinear least squares method with differential corrections, can estimate a TLE as long as there exists an initial estimate that provides the desired precision. Global optimization methods to estimate TLEs are computationally intensive, and estimating a large number of them is prohibitive. In this paper, the feasibility of estimating TLEs using machine learning methods is investigated. First, a Monte-Carlo approach to estimate a TLE, when there are no initial estimates that provide the desired precision, is introduced. The proposed Monte-Carlo method is shown to estimate TLEs with residual mean squared errors below 1 km for space objects with varying area-to-mass ratios and orbital characteristics. Second, gradient boosting decision trees and fully-connected neural networks are trained to map the orbital evolution of space objects to the associated TLEs using 8 million publicly available TLEs from the US space catalog. The desired precision in the mapping to estimate a TLE is achieved for one of the three test cases, which is a low area-to-mass ratio space object.

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Rasit Abay, Sudantha Balage, Melrose Brown, Russell Boyce. 2019-02-11. Two-Line Element Estimation Using Machine Learning. https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04189

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