Bus Travel Time Prediction: A Lognormal Auto-Regressive (AR) Modeling Approach

Abstract

Providing real time information about the arrival time of the transit buses has become inevitable in urban areas to make the system more user-friendly and advantageous over various other transportation modes. However, accurate prediction of arrival time of buses is still a challenging problem in dynamically varying traffic conditions especially under heterogeneous traffic condition without lane discipline. One broad approach researchers have adopted over the years is to segment the entire bus route into segments and work with these segment travel times as the data input (from GPS traces) for prediction. This paper adopts this approach and proposes predictive modelling approaches which fully exploit the temporal correlations in the bus GPS data. Specifically, we propose two approaches: (a) classical time-series approach employing a seasonal AR model (b)unconventional linear, non-stationary AR approach. The second approach is a novel technique and exploits the notion of partial correlation for learning from data. A detailed analysis of the marginal distributions of the data from Indian conditions (used here), revealed a predominantly log-normal behavior. This aspect was incorporated into the above proposed predictive models and statistically optimal prediction schemes in the lognormal sense are utilized for all predictions. Both the above temporal predictive modeling approaches predict ahead in time at each segment independently. For real-time bus travel time prediction, one however needs to predict across multiple segments ahead in space. Towards a complete solution, the study also proposes an intelligent procedure to perform (real-time) multi-section ahead travel-time predictions based on either of the above proposed temporal models. Results showed a clear improvement in prediction accuracy using the proposed methods,