Forecasting Super-Sample Covariance in Future Weak Lensing Surveys with SuperSCRAM

Abstract

The observable universe contains density perturbations on scales larger than any finite volume survey. Perturbations on scales larger than a survey can measure degrade its power to constrain cosmological parameters. The dependence of survey observables such as the weak lensing power spectrum on these long-wavelength modes results in super-sample covariance. Accurately forecasting parameter constraints for future surveys requires accurately accounting for the super-sample effects. If super-sample covariance is in fact a major component of the survey error budget, it may be necessary to investigate mitigation strategies that constrain the specific realization of the long-wavelength modes. We present a Fisher matrix based formalism for approximating the magnitude of super-sample covariance and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for realistic survey geometries. We implement our formalism in the public code SuperSCRAM: Super-Sample Covariance Reduction and Mitigation. We illustrate SuperSCRAM with an example application, where the modes contributing to super-sample covariance in the WFIRST weak lensing survey are constrained by the low-redshift galaxy number counts in the wider LSST footprint. We find that super-sample covariance increases the volume of the error ellipsoid in 7D cosmological parameter space by a factor of 4.5 relative to Gaussian statistical errors only, but our simple mitigation strategy more than halves the contamination, to a factor of 2.0.