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arXiv · 1905.03437

Intervention Threshold for Epidemic Control in Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Metapopulation Models

Akari Matsuki·Gouhei Tanaka
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Abstract

Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) metapopulation model where the epidemic process in each patch is represented by an SIR model and the mobility of individuals is assumed to be a homogeneous diffusion. Our study focuses on two types of patches including high-risk and low-risk ones, in order to evaluate intervention strategies for epidemic control. We theoretically analyze the intervention threshold, indicating the critical fraction of low-risk patches for preventing a global epidemic outbreak. We show that targeted intervention to high-degree patches is more effective for epidemic control than random intervention. The theoretical results are validated by Monte Carlo simulation for synthetic and realistic scale-free patch networks. Our approach is useful for exploring better local interventions aimed at containment of epidemics.

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Akari Matsuki, Gouhei Tanaka. 2019-05-09. Intervention Threshold for Epidemic Control in Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Metapopulation Models. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.100.022302

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