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arXiv · 1906.01997

MEDEAS-World model calibration for the study of the energy transition

Gianluca Martelloni·Francesca Di Patti·Ilaria Perissi·Sara Falsini·Ugo Bardi
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Abstract

MEDEAS (Modelling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint) World is a new global-aggregated energy-economy-environmental model, which runs from 1995 to 2050. In this work, we tested the MEDEAS world model to reproduce the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) GHG (Green House Gases) emission pathways consistent with 2 °C Global Warming. We achieved parameter optimizations of the MEDEAS model related to different scenarios until 2050. We chose to provide a sensitivity analysis on the parameters that directly influence the emission curves focusing on the annual growth of the RES (Renewable Energy Sources), GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and annual population growth. From such an analysis, it has been possible to infer the large impact of GDP on the emission scenarios.

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Gianluca Martelloni, Francesca Di Patti, Ilaria Perissi, Sara Falsini, Ugo Bardi. 2019-07-30. MEDEAS-World model calibration for the study of the energy transition. https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01997

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