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arXiv · 1906.07449

Epidemic model on a network: analysis and applications to COVID-19

F. Bustamante-Castaneda·J. -G. Caputo·G. Cruz-Pacheco·A. Knippel·F. Mouatamide
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Abstract

We analyze an epidemic model on a network consisting of susceptible-infected-recovered equations at the nodes coupled by diffusion using a graph Laplacian. We introduce an epidemic criterion and examine different vaccination/containment strategies: we prove that it is most effective to vaccinate a node of highest degree. The model is also useful to evaluate deconfinement scenarios and prevent a so-called second wave. The model has few parameters enabling fitting to the data and the essential ingredient of importation of infected; these features are particularly important for the current COVID-19 epidemic.

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F. Bustamante-Castaneda, J. -G. Caputo, G. Cruz-Pacheco, A. Knippel, F. Mouatamide. 2019-06-18. Epidemic model on a network: analysis and applications to COVID-19. https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07449

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