Added Value of Intraoperative Data for Predicting Postoperative Complications: Development and Validation of a MySurgeryRisk Extension

Abstract

To test the hypothesis that accuracy, discrimination, and precision in predicting postoperative complications improve when using both preoperative and intraoperative data input features versus preoperative data alone. Models that predict postoperative complications often ignore important intraoperative physiological changes. Incorporation of intraoperative physiological data may improve model performance. This retrospective cohort analysis included 52,529 inpatient surgeries at a single institution during a 5 year period. Random forest machine learning models in the validated MySurgeryRisk platform made patient-level predictions for three postoperative complications and mortality during hospital admission using electronic health record data and patient neighborhood characteristics. For each outcome, one model trained with preoperative data alone and one model trained with both preoperative and intraoperative data. Models were compared by accuracy, discrimination (expressed as AUROC), precision (expressed as AUPRC), and reclassification indices (NRI). Machine learning models incorporating both preoperative and intraoperative data had greater accuracy, discrimination, and precision than models using preoperative data alone for predicting all three postoperative complications (intensive care unit length of stay >48 hours, mechanical ventilation >48 hours, and neurological complications including delirium) and in-hospital mortality (accuracy: 88% vs. 77%, AUROC: 0.93 vs. 0.87, AUPRC: 0.21 vs. 0.15). Overall reclassification improvement was 2.9-10.0% for complications and 11.2% for in-hospital mortality. Incorporating both preoperative and intraoperative data significantly increased accuracy, discrimination, and precision for machine learning models predicting postoperative complications.