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arXiv · 1911.04340

The systemic growth constants of climate change: From its origin in 1780 to its major post-WWII acceleration

Jessie Lydia Henshaw
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Abstract

The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we show that the preceding wavy variation in CO2 PPM abruptly shifts to exponential, moving symmetrically around a growth constant of 1.48 %/yr until WWII, and after a pause rises to hover about a higher constant growth constant from 1960 on of 2.0 %/yr. Such long term steady states of global environmental change suggest transitions between stable states of global self-organization. A method of analog curve fitting to project the current steady state of acceleration is tested, suggesting a 2040 earth temperature rise of 1.89 deg C above the IPCC baseline. A very brief following discussion of what a systemic growth constant for atmospheric CO2 implies and model strategies for responding to it.

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Jessie Lydia Henshaw. 2019-11-08. The systemic growth constants of climate change: From its origin in 1780 to its major post-WWII acceleration. https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.04340

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