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arXiv · 1912.00471

Maximal Likely Phase Lines for a Reduced Ice Growth Model

Athanasios Tsiairis·Pingyuan Wei·Ying Chao·Jinqiao Duan
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Abstract

We study the impact of Brownian noise on transitions between metastable equilibrium states in a stochastic ice sheet model. Two methods to accomplish different objectives are employed. The maximal likely trajectory by maximizing the probability density function and numerically solving the Fokker-Planck equation shows how the system will evolve over time. We have especially studied the maximal likely trajectories starting near the ice-free metastable state, and examined whether they evolve to or near the ice-covered metastable state for certain parameters, in order to gain insights into how the ice sheet formed. Furthermore, for the transition from ice-covered metastable state to the ice-free metastable state, we study the most probable path for various noise parameters via the Onsager-Machlup least action principle. This enables us to predict and visualize the melting process of the ice sheet if such a rare event ever does take place.

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Athanasios Tsiairis, Pingyuan Wei, Ying Chao, Jinqiao Duan. 2019-12-01. Maximal Likely Phase Lines for a Reduced Ice Growth Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.00471

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