Statistical post-processing of heat index ensemble forecasts: is there a royal road?

Abstract

We investigate the effect of statistical post-processing on the probabilistic skill of discomfort index (DI) and indoor wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTid) ensemble forecasts, both calculated from the corresponding forecasts of temperature and dew point temperature. Two different methodological approaches to calibration are compared. In the first case, we start with joint post-processing of the temperature and dew point forecasts and then create calibrated samples of DI and WBGTid using samples from the obtained bivariate predictive distributions. This approach is compared with direct post-processing of the heat index ensemble forecasts. For this purpose, a novel ensemble model output statistics model based on a generalized extreme value distribution is proposed. The predictive performance of both methods is tested on the operational temperature and dew point ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the corresponding forecasts of DI and WBGTid. For short lead times (up to day 6), both approaches significantly improve the forecast skill. Among the competing post-processing methods, direct calibration of heat indices exhibits the best predictive performance, very closely followed by the more general approach based on joint calibration of temperature and dew point temperature. Additionally, a machine learning approach is tested and shows comparable performance for the case when one is interested only in forecasting heat index warning level categories.