Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2003.00357

Exploring the Bayesian parameter estimation of binary black holes with LISA

Sylvain Marsat·John G. Baker·Tito Dal Canton
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The space-based gravitational wave detector LISA will observe mergers of massive black hole binary systems (MBHBs) to cosmological distances, as well as inspiralling stellar-origin (or stellar-mass) binaries (SBHBs) years before they enter the LIGO/Virgo band. Much remains to be explored for the parameter recovery of both classes of systems. Previous MBHB analyses relied on inspiral-only signals and/or a simplified Fisher matrix analysis, while SBHBs have not yet been extensively analyzed with Bayesian methods. We accelerate likelihood computations by (i) using a Fourier-domain response of the LISA instrument, (ii) using a reduced-order model for non-spinning waveforms that include a merger-ringdown and higher harmonics, (iii) setting the noise realization to zero and computing overlaps in the amplitude/phase representation. We present the first simulations of Bayesian inference for the parameters of massive black hole systems including consistently the merger and ringdown of the signal, as well as higher harmonics. We clarify the roles of LISA response time and frequency dependencies in breaking degeneracies and illustrate how degeneracy breaking unfolds over time. We also find that restricting the merger-dominated signal to its dominant harmonic can make the extrinsic likelihood very degenerate. Including higher harmonics proves to be crucial to break degeneracies and considerably improves the localization of the source, with a surviving bimodality in the sky position. We also present simulations of Bayesian inference for the extrinsic parameters of SBHBs, and show that although unimodal, their posterior distributions can have non-Gaussian features.

Explore related subjects

gr-qcastro-ph.HE

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Sylvain Marsat, John G. Baker, Tito Dal Canton. 2020-02-29. Exploring the Bayesian parameter estimation of binary black holes with LISA. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.103.083011

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗