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arXiv · 2003.14397

A new low-cost technique improves weather forecasts across the world

Tim D. Hewson·Fatima M. Pillosu
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Abstract

Computer-generated forecasts divide the earth's surface into gridboxes, each now ~25% of the size of London, and predict one value per gridbox. If weather varies markedly within a gridbox forecasts for specific sites inevitably fail. A completely new statistical post-processing method, using ensemble forecasts as input, anticipates two gridbox-weather-dependant factors: degree of variation in each gridbox, and bias on the gridbox scale. Globally, skill improves substantially; for extreme rainfall, for example, useful forecasts extend 5 days ahead. Without post-processing this limit is < 1 day. Relative to historical forecasting advances this constitutes ground-breaking progress. The key drivers, incorporated during calibration, are meteorological understanding and abandoning classical notions that only local data be used. Instead we simply recognise that "showers are showers, wherever they occur worldwide" which delivers a huge increase in calibration dataset size. Numerous multi-faceted applications include improved flash flood warnings, physics-related insights into model weaknesses and global pointwise re-analyses.

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Tim D. Hewson, Fatima M. Pillosu. 2020-03-31. A new low-cost technique improves weather forecasts across the world. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00185-9

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