Temporal rise in the proportion of younger adults and older adolescents among COVID-19 cases in Germany: evidence of lesser adherence to social distancing practices?

Edward Goldstein

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arXiv · 2004.02817

Temporal rise in the proportion of younger adults and older adolescents among COVID-19 cases in Germany: evidence of lesser adherence to social distancing practices?

Edward Goldstein

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Abstract

Background: There is uncertainty about the role of different age groups in propagating the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in different countries. Methods: We used the Koch Institute data on COVID-19 cases in Germany. To minimize the effect of changes in healthcare seeking behavior and testing practices, we included the following 5-year age groups in the analyses: 10-14y through 45-49y. For each age group g, we considered the proportion PL(g) of individuals in age group g among all detected cases aged 10-49y during weeks 13-14, 2020 (later period), as well as corresponding proportion PE(g) for weeks 10-11, 2020 (early period), and the relative risk RR(g)=PL(g)/PE(g). For each pair of age groups g1,g2, a higher value of RR(g1) compared to RR(g2) is interpreted as the relative increase in the population incidence of SARS-Cov-2 for g1 compared to g2 for the later vs. early period. Results: The relative risk was highest for individuals aged 20-24y (RR=1.4(95% CI (1.27,1.55))), followed by individuals aged 15-19y (RR=1.14(0.99,1.32)), aged 30-34y (RR= 1.07(0.99,1.16)), aged 25-29y (RR= 1.06(0.98,1.15)), aged 35-39y (RR=0.95(0.87,1.03)), aged 40-44y (RR=0.9(0.83,0.98)), aged 45-49y (RR=0.83(0.77,0.89)) and aged 10-14y (RR=0.78(0.64,0.95)). Conclusions: The observed relative increase with time in the prevalence of individuals aged 15-34y (particularly those aged 20-24y) among COVID-19 cases is unlikely to be explained by increases in the likelihood of seeking medical care/being tested for individuals in those age groups compared to individuals aged 35-49y or 10-14y, suggesting an actual increase in the prevalence of individuals aged 15-34y among SARS-CoV-2 infections in the German population. That increase likely reflects elevated mixing among individuals aged 15-34y (particularly those aged 20-24y) compared to other age groups, possibly due to lesser adherence to social distancing practices.

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Edward Goldstein. 2020-04-06. Temporal rise in the proportion of younger adults and older adolescents among COVID-19 cases in Germany: evidence of lesser adherence to social distancing practices?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.02817

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