Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of forecast performance measures to taking a real time versus pseudo out-of-sample perspective. We use monthly vintages for the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) and estimate a set of vector autoregressive (VAR) models of different sizes with constant and time-varying parameters (TVPs) and stochastic volatility (SV). Our results suggest differences in the relative ordering of model performance for point and density forecasts depending on whether real time data or truncated final vintages in pseudo out-of-sample simulations are used for evaluating forecasts. No clearly superior specification for the US or the EA across variable types and forecast horizons can be identified, although larger models featuring TVPs appear to be affected the least by missing values and data revisions. We identify substantial differences in performance metrics with respect to whether forecasts are produced for the US or the EA.