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arXiv · 2004.06536

The effect of anti-COVID-19 policies to the evolution of the disease: A complex network analysis to the successful case of Greece

Dimitrios Tsiotas·Lykourgos Magafas
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Abstract

Within the context that Greece promises a success story in the fight against the disease, this paper proposes a novel method to study the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve in relation to the anti-COVID-19 policies applied to control the pandemic. Based on the ongoing spreading of COVID-19 and the insufficient data for applying classic time-series approaches, the analysis builds on the visibility graph algorithm to study the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve as a complex network. By using the modularity optimization algorithm, the generated visibility graph is divided into communities defining periods of different connectivity in the time-series body. These periods reveal a sequence of different typologies in the evolution of the disease, starting with a power pattern, where a second order polynomial (U-shaped) pattern intermediates, being followed by a couple of exponential patterns, and ending up with a current logarithmic pattern revealing that the evolution of the Greek COVID-19 infection-curve tends into saturation. The network analysis also illustrates stability of hubs and instability of medium and low-degree nodes, implying a low probability to meet maximum (infection) values at the future and high uncertainty in the variability of other values below the average. The overall approach contributes to the scientific research by proposing a novel method for the structural decomposition of a time-series into periods, which allows removing from the series the disconnected past-data facilitating better forecasting, and provides insights of good policy and decision-making practices and management that may help other countries improve their performance in the war against COVID-19.

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BibTeXRIS

Dimitrios Tsiotas, Lykourgos Magafas. 2020-04-12. The effect of anti-COVID-19 policies to the evolution of the disease: A complex network analysis to the successful case of Greece. https://doi.org/10.3390/physics2020017

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