Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Calistus N. Ngonghala; Enahoro Iboi; Steffen Eikenberry; Matthew Scotch; Chandini Raina MacIntyre; Matthew H. Bonds; Abba B. Gumel

arXiv · 2004.07391

Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus

Calistus N. Ngonghala·Enahoro Iboi·Steffen Eikenberry·Matthew Scotch·Chandini Raina MacIntyre·Matthew H. Bonds·Abba B. Gumel

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Abstract

A novel Coronavirus pandemic emerged in December of 2019, causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral, strategies for mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of these mitigation strategies. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission in New York state and the entire US, show that the pandemic will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) in New York State and the entire US decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. This study shows that early termination of strict social-distancing could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to that projected before the onset of strict social-distance. The use of efficacious face-masks (efficacy greater than 70%) could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of other anti-COVID-19 intervention measures can lead to elimination of the pandemic. The mask coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if mask-use is combined with strict social-distancing.

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Calistus N. Ngonghala, Enahoro Iboi, Steffen Eikenberry, Matthew Scotch, Chandini Raina MacIntyre, Matthew H. Bonds, Abba B. Gumel. 2020-04-15. Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07391

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