Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Antiepidemic Policies and Global Situation Assessment of COVID-19

Liyan Xu; Hongmou Zhang; Yuqiao Deng; Keli Wang; Fu Li; Qing Lu; Jie Yin; Qian Di; Tao Liu; Hang Yin; Zijiao Zhang; Qingyang Du; Hongbin Yu; Aihan Liu; Hezhishi Jiang; Jing Guo; Xiumei Yuan; Yun Zhang; Liu Liu; Yu Liu

arXiv · 2004.07765

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Antiepidemic Policies and Global Situation Assessment of COVID-19

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Abstract

With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and provide situation assessment and policy suggestions for each group.

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Liyan Xu, Hongmou Zhang, Yuqiao Deng, Keli Wang, Fu Li, Qing Lu, Jie Yin, Qian Di, Tao Liu, Hang Yin, Zijiao Zhang, Qingyang Du, Hongbin Yu, Aihan Liu, Hezhishi Jiang, Jing Guo, Xiumei Yuan, Yun Zhang, Liu Liu, Yu Liu. 2020-04-16. Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Antiepidemic Policies and Global Situation Assessment of COVID-19. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07765

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