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arXiv · 2004.08990

A Semiempirical Dynamical Model to Forecast the Propagation of Epidemics: The Case of the Sars-Cov-2 in Spain

Juan C. Mora·Sandra Pérez·Ignacio Rodríguez·Asunción Núñez·Alla Dvorzhak
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Abstract

A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated and applied to perform predictions of people needing to be hospitalized, needs of ventilators, or the number of deaths which would be produced. It is shown specifically the results obtained in the case of Spain, showing a prediction of diagnosed infected and deaths which will be observed after the ease of the total lockdown produced the 13th of March. Is also shown how this model can provide an insight of what the level of infection in the different regions of Spain is forecasted. The model predicts for Spain for the end of May more than 400,000 diagnosed infected cases, number which will be probably higher due to the change in the possibilities of performing massive number of tests to the general population. The number of forecasted deaths for that date is 46,000 +/- 15,000. The model also predicts the level of infection at the different Spanish regions, providing a counterintuitive result in the cases of Madrid and Catalonia as the result shows a higher the level of infection at Catalonia than the level at Madrid, according with this model. All of these results can be used to guide policy makers in order to optimize resources and to avoid future outbreaks of the covid-19.

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Juan C. Mora, Sandra Pérez, Ignacio Rodríguez, Asunción Núñez, Alla Dvorzhak. 2020-04-19. A Semiempirical Dynamical Model to Forecast the Propagation of Epidemics: The Case of the Sars-Cov-2 in Spain. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08990

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