Mapping forest age using National Forest Inventory, airborne laser scanning, and Sentinel-2 data

Abstract

The age of forest stands is critical information for many aspects of forest management and conservation but area-wide information about forest stand age often does not exist. In this study, we developed regression models for large-scale area-wide prediction of age in Norwegian forests. For model development we used more than 4800 plots of the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (NFI) distributed over Norway between 58{\deg} and 65{\deg} northern latitude in a 181,773 km2 study area. Predictor variables were based on airborne laser scanning (ALS), Sentinel-2, and existing public map data. We performed model validation on an independent data set consisting of 63 spruce stands with known age. The best modelling strategy was to fit independent linear regression models to each observed site index (SI) level and using a SI prediction map in the application of the models. The most important predictor variable was an upper percentile of the ALS heights, and root-mean-squared-errors (RMSE) ranged between 3 and 31 years (6% to 26%) for SI-specific models, and 21 years (25%) on average. Mean deviance (MD) ranged between -1 and 3 years. The models improved with increasing SI and the RMSE were largest for low SI stands older than 100 years. Using a mapped SI, which is required for practical applications, RMSE and MD on plot-level ranged from 19 to 56 years (29% to 53%), and 5 to 37 years (5% to 31%), respectively. For the validation stands, the RMSE and MD were 12 (22%) and 2 years (3%). Tree height estimated from airborne laser scanning and predicted site index were the most important variables in the models describing age. Overall, we obtained good results, especially for stands with high SI, that could be considered for practical applications but see considerable potential for improvements, if better SI maps were available.