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arXiv · 2004.13488

Nota T\'ecnica dos Modelos Implementados pelo Coletivo Covid19br para Proje\c{c}\~oes de Cen\'arios Futuros da Pandemia COVID-19 no Brasil

Daniel Severo·Giuliano Netto Flores Cruz·Alcides Carlos de Araújo·André Marques dos Santos·André Luiz Nunes Martins·Carolina Ferreira da Silva·Cristiane Schmitz·Felipe Brum de Brito Sousa·Gabriel Domingos de Arruda·Gabriel Mendes Cabral Gondim·Giovanna Ferraresso·Joao Ricardo Vissoci·Marcel Figueredo S. Figueredo·Rafael Prudencio Moreira·Ralf Lima da Costa·Vito Ribeiro Venturieri·Diógenes Adriano Rizzoto Justo
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Abstract

This technical note aims to provide a brief introduction to the projection models used by the group to project future scenarios for states and municipalities in real-time, according to the disease's behavior in previous days. However, the parameters can be modified by the user to design customized scenarios. The proposed model begins with the calculation of the basic reproduction number for the state or municipality based on the incidence of cases in the last 12 days. Once this is done, the epidemiological curve is projected using the SEIR compartmentalized epidemic model, in possession of this curve, part of the newly projected infected enter a simulation model for health systems in queuing theory, aiming to project future occupations and collapses.

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Daniel Severo, Giuliano Netto Flores Cruz, Alcides Carlos de Araújo, André Marques dos Santos, André Luiz Nunes Martins, Carolina Ferreira da Silva, Cristiane Schmitz, Felipe Brum de Brito Sousa, Gabriel Domingos de Arruda, Gabriel Mendes Cabral Gondim, Giovanna Ferraresso, Joao Ricardo Vissoci, Marcel Figueredo S. Figueredo, Rafael Prudencio Moreira, Ralf Lima da Costa, Vito Ribeiro Venturieri, Diógenes Adriano Rizzoto Justo. 2020-04-26. Nota T\'ecnica dos Modelos Implementados pelo Coletivo Covid19br para Proje\c{c}\~oes de Cen\'arios Futuros da Pandemia COVID-19 no Brasil. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.13488

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