Dynamical Theory and Cellular Automata Simulations of Pandemic Spread: Understanding Different Temporal Patterns of Infections

Saumyak Mukherjee; Sayantan Mondal; Biman Bagchi

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arXiv · 2004.14787

Dynamical Theory and Cellular Automata Simulations of Pandemic Spread: Understanding Different Temporal Patterns of Infections

Saumyak Mukherjee·Sayantan Mondal·Biman Bagchi

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Abstract

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of the widely used Kermack-McKendrick(KM) model where the susceptible(S) population evolves into two other categories, namely infectives(I) and removed(R). This is the well-known SIR model in which we further divide both S and I into high and low risk categories. We first formulate a set of non-local dynamical equations for the time evolution of distinct population distributions under this categorization in an attempt to describe the general scenario of infectious disease progression. We then solve the non-linear coupled differential equations-(i) numerically by the method of propagation, and (ii) a more flexible and versatile cellular automata (CA) simulation which provides a coarse-grained description of the generalized non-local model. In order to account for multiple factors such as role of spreaders before containment, we introduce a time dependent rate which appears to be essential to explain the sudden spikes before the plateau observed in many cases (for example like China). We demonstrate how this generalized approach allows us to handle the effects of (i) time-dependence of the rate-constants of spread, (ii) different population density, (iii) the age ratio, (iv) quarantine, (v) lockdown, and (vi) social distancing. Our study allows us to make certain predictions regarding the nature of spread with respect to several external parameters, treated as control variables. Analysis of the model clearly shows that due to the strong heterogeneity in the epidemic process originating from the distribution of initial infectives, the theory must be local in character but at the same time connect to a global perspective.

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BibTeX RIS

Saumyak Mukherjee, Sayantan Mondal, Biman Bagchi. 2020-04-30. Dynamical Theory and Cellular Automata Simulations of Pandemic Spread: Understanding Different Temporal Patterns of Infections. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14787

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