Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR System and Viral Strain Selection

Marcilio Ferreira dos Santos; Cesar Castilho

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arXiv · 2004.14920

Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR System and Viral Strain Selection

Marcilio Ferreira dos Santos·Cesar Castilho

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Abstract

In this paper the concept of Critical Community Size (CCS) for the deterministic SIR model is introduced and its consequences for the disease dynamics are stressed. The disease can fade out after an outburst. Also the principle of competitive exclusion holds no longer true. This is exemplified for the dynamics of two competing virus strains. The virus with higher R0 can be eradicated from the population.

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Marcilio Ferreira dos Santos, Cesar Castilho. 2020-04-29. Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR System and Viral Strain Selection. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14920

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