The impact of non-Gaussianity on the Epoch of Reionization parameter forecast using 21-cm power spectrum measurements

Abstract

Measurements of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal hold the potential to constrain models of reionization. In this paper we consider a reionization model with three astrophysical parameters namely (1) the minimum halo mass which can host ionizing sources, $M_{\rm min}$, (2) the number of ionizing photons escaping into the IGM per baryon within the halo, $N_{\rm ion}$ and (3) the mean free path of the ionizing photons within the IGM, $R_{\rm mfp}$. We predict the accuracy with which these parameters can be measured from future observations of the 21-cm power spectrum (PS) using the upcoming SKA-Low. Unlike several earlier works, we account for the non-Gaussianity of the inherent EoR 21-cm signal. Considering cosmic variance only and assuming that foregrounds are completely removed, we find that non-Gaussianity increases the volume of the $1 σ$ error ellipsoid of the parameters by a factor of $133$ relative to the Gaussian predictions, the orientation is also different. The ratio of the volume of error ellipsoids is $1.65$ and $2.67$ for observation times of $1024$ and $10000$ hours respectively, when all the $\mathbf{k}$ modes within the foreground wedge are excluded. With foreground wedge excluded and for $1024$ hours, the 1D marginalized errors are $(ΔM_{\rm min}/M_{\rm min},ΔN_{\rm ion}/N_{\rm ion},ΔR_{\rm mfp}/R_{\rm mfp})=(6.54, 2.71, 7.75) \times 10^{-2}$ which are respectively $2 \%$, $5 \%$ and $23 \%$ larger than the respective Gaussian predictions. The impact of non-Gaussianity increases for longer observations, and it is particularly important for $R_{\rm mfp}$.