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arXiv · 2006.02140

Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID

Chen Shen·Ron Mark·Nolan J. Kagetsu·Anton S. Becker·Yaneer Bar-Yam
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Abstract

We analyze the effect of using a screening CT-scan for evaluation of potential COVID-19 infections in order to isolate and perform contact tracing based upon a viral pneumonia diagnosis. RT-PCR is then used for continued isolation based upon a COVID diagnosis. Both the low false negative rates and rapid results of CT-scans lead to dramatically reduced transmission. The reduction in cases after 60 days with widespread use of CT-scan screening compared to PCR by itself is as high as $50\times$, and the reduction of effective reproduction rate $R(t)$ is $0.20$. Our results imply that much more rapid extinction of COVID is possible by combining social distancing with CT-scans and contact tracing.

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Chen Shen, Ron Mark, Nolan J. Kagetsu, Anton S. Becker, Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020-05-27. Combining PCR and CT testing for COVID. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02140

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