On the dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic and the unreported cases: the Chilean case

Andrés Navas; Gastón Vergara-Hermosilla

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arXiv · 2006.02632

On the dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic and the unreported cases: the Chilean case

Andrés Navas·Gastón Vergara-Hermosilla

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Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic taking into account the role of the unreported cases. After a first section in which we deal with a framework of very slow test capacity, we turn to the model recently introduced/implemented by Liu, Magal, Seydi and Webb. First, we prove some basic structural results for the corresponding ODE, as for instance the convergence of S(t) to a positive limit. These are similar to those of the classical SIR model, although the maxima of the corresponding curves are not necessarily unique. Finally, we implement the model -- but with a variable transmission rate -- in the Chilean context. A key parameter adjustment (namely, the fraction of unreported cases) is done via an argument using mortality rates. We conclude with several conclusions and lines of future research.

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Andrés Navas, Gastón Vergara-Hermosilla. 2020-06-04. On the dynamics of the Coronavirus epidemic and the unreported cases: the Chilean case. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02632

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