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arXiv · 2006.07148

Long-term and seasonal variability of wind and wave extremes in the Arctic Ocean

Isabela S. Cabral·Ian R. Young·Alessandro Toffoli
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Abstract

Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the rapid changes to the Arctic climate, a non-stationary approach is applied to time-varying statistical properties to investigate historical trends of extreme values. The analysis is based on a 28-year wave hindcast (from 1991 to 2018) carried out with the WAVEWATCH III wave model forced by ERA5 wind speed. The results show notable seasonal differences and robust positive trends in extreme wave height and wind speed, especially in the Beaufort and East Siberian seas, with increasing rates in areal-average of the 100-year return period of wind speed of approximately 4\% and significant wave height up to 60%. It is concluded that the significant increases in extreme significant wave height are largely associated with sea-ice retreat and the enhanced fetches available for wave generation.

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Isabela S. Cabral, Ian R. Young, Alessandro Toffoli. 2020-06-12. Long-term and seasonal variability of wind and wave extremes in the Arctic Ocean. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.07148

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