Masking the general population might attenuate COVID-19 outbreaks

Bjorn Johansson

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arXiv · 2006.15626

Masking the general population might attenuate COVID-19 outbreaks

Bjorn Johansson

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Abstract

The effect of masking the general population on a COVID-19 epidemic is estimated by computer simulation using two separate state-of-the-art web-based softwares, one of them calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions addressed are these: 1. Can mask use by the general population limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a country? 2. What types of masks exist, and how elaborate must a mask be to be effective against COVID-19? 3. Does the mask have to be applied early in an epidemic? 4. A brief general discussion of masks and some possible future research questions regarding masks and SARS-CoV-2. Results are as follows: (1) The results indicate that any type of mask, even simple home-made ones, may be effective. Masks use seems to have an effect in lowering new patients even the protective effect of each mask (here dubbed "one-mask protection") is low. Strict adherence to mask use does not appear to be critical. However, increasing the one-mask protection to > 50% was found to be advantageous. Masks seemed able to reduce overflow of capacity, e.g. of intensive care. As the default parameters of the software included another intervention, it seems possible to combine mask and other interventions. (2) Masks do seem to reduce the number of new cases even if introduced at a late stage in an epidemic. However, early implementation helps reduce the cumulative and total number of cases. (3) The simulations suggest that it might be possible to eliminate a COVID-19 outbreak by widespread mask use during a limited period. The results from these simulations are encouraging, but do not necessarily represent the real-life situation, so it is suggested that clinical trials of masks are now carried out while continuously monitoring effects and side-effects.

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Bjorn Johansson. 2020-06-28. Masking the general population might attenuate COVID-19 outbreaks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.15626

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