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arXiv · 2008.03332

Estimating undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba by means of a hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach

Gabriel Gil·Alejandro Lage-Castellanos
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Abstract

We adapt the hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach of Ref. [1] to estimate the total number of undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba. This scheme is based on the maximum likelihood estimation of a SIR-like model parameters for the infected population, assuming that the detection process matches a Bernoulli trial. Our estimations show that (a) 60% of the infections were undocumented, (b) the real epidemics behind the data peaked ten days before the reports suggested, and (c) the reproduction number swiftly vanishes after 80 epidemic days.

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Gabriel Gil, Alejandro Lage-Castellanos. 2020-08-07. Estimating undocumented Covid-19 infections in Cuba by means of a hybrid mechanistic-statistical approach. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03332

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