SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2008.05163

Implications on Feature Detection when using the Benefit-Cost Ratio

Abstract

In many practical machine learning applications, there are two objectives: one is to maximize predictive accuracy and the other is to minimize costs of the resulting model. These costs of individual features may be financial costs, but can also refer to other aspects, like for example evaluation time. Feature selection addresses both objectives, as it reduces the number of features and can improve the generalization ability of the model. If costs differ between features, the feature selection needs to trade-off the individual benefit and cost of each feature. A popular trade-off choice is the ratio of both, the BCR (benefit-cost ratio). In this paper we analyze implications of using this measure with special focus to the ability to distinguish relevant features from noise. We perform a simulation study for different cost and data settings and obtain detection rates of relevant features and empirical distributions of the trade-off ratio. Our simulation study exposed a clear impact of the cost setting on the detection rate. In situations with large cost differences and small effect sizes, the BCR missed relevant features and preferred cheap noise features. We conclude that a trade-off between predictive performance and costs without a controlling hyperparameter can easily overemphasize very cheap noise features. While the simple benefit-cost ratio offers an easy solution to incorporate costs, it is important to be aware of its risks. Avoiding costs close to 0, rescaling large cost differences, or using a hyperparameter trade-off are ways to counteract the adverse effects exposed in this paper.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Rudolf Jagdhuber, Jörg Rahnenführer. 2020-08-15. Implications on Feature Detection when using the Benefit-Cost Ratio. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.05163

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

A Hilbert-Valued Functional Decomposition Framework for Explaining Time-Dependent Outputs

Feature-based explanations quantify features' influence on model predictions, but are primarily designed for scalar outputs. In many applications, however, outputs are functional or multivariate, such as time-dependent trajectories in demand forecasting. Consequently, existing approaches typically explain each output location independently, ignoring dependencies across the output components. We address this limitation by developing a unified framework for feature-based explanations of time-dependent outputs. Specifically, we generalize functional decomposition to Hilbert-valued prediction functions and extend an existing feature-based explanation framework to this setting. Our framework introduces kernel-based output representations that enable time-dependency-aware explanations at multiple levels of temporal granularity, including time-specific, time-resolved, and time-aggregated, while providing a unified view in which existing methods arise as special cases. We validate our framework on synthetic and real-world data, including intraday financial market volatility prediction and energy demand forecasting.

stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

stat.ML

A distribution-free certification framework for trustworthy crash-severity prediction

Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.

stat.ML