Utilizing Citation Network Structure to Predict Citation Counts: A Deep Learning Approach

Abstract

With the advancement of science and technology, the number of academic papers published in the world each year has increased almost exponentially. While a large number of research papers highlight the prosperity of science and technology, they also give rise to some problems. As we all know, academic papers are the most intuitive embodiment of the research results of scholars, which can reflect the level of researchers. It is also the evaluation standard for decision-making such as promotion and allocation of funds. Therefore, how to measure the quality of an academic paper is very important. The most common standard for measuring academic papers is the number of citation counts of papers, because this indicator is widely used in the evaluation of scientific publications, and it also serves as the basis for many other indicators (such as the h-index). Therefore, it is very important to be able to accurately predict the citation counts of academic papers. This paper proposes an end-to-end deep learning network, DeepCCP, which combines the effect of information cascade and looks at the citation counts prediction problem from the perspective of information cascade prediction. DeepCCP directly uses the citation network formed in the early stage of the paper as the input, and the output is the citation counts of the corresponding paper after a period of time. DeepCCP only uses the structure and temporal information of the citation network, and does not require other additional information, but it can still achieve outstanding performance. According to experiments on 6 real data sets, DeepCCP is superior to the state-of-the-art methods in terms of the accuracy of citation count prediction.