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arXiv · 2009.02962

Detectability of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and rates of mortality from the novel coronavirus infection in different regions of the Russian Federation

Edward Goldstein
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Abstract

Relevance: Laboratory diagnosis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection combined with quarantine for contacts of infected individuals affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and levels of related mortality. Practices for testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection vary geographically in Russia. For example, in the city of St. Petersburg, where mortality rate for COVID-19 is the highest in the Russian Federation on Oct. 25, 2020, every death for COVID-19 corresponds to 15.7 detected cases of COVID-19 in the population, while the corresponding number for the whole of Russia is 58.1, suggesting limited detection of mild/moderate cases of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg. Methods: More active testing for SARS-CoV-2 results in lower case-fatality ratio (i.e. the proportion of detected COVID-19 cases among all cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population). We used data on COVID-19 cases and deaths to examine the correlation between case-fatality ratios and rates of mortality for COVID-19 in different regions of the Russian Federation. Results: The correlation between case-fatality ratios and rates of mortality for COVID-19 in different regions of the Russian Federation on Oct. 25, 2020 is 0.64 (0.50,0.75). For several regions of the Russian Federation, detectability of SARS-CoV-2 infection is relatively low, while rates of mortality for COVID-19 are relatively high. Conclusions: Detectability of the SARS-CoV-2 infection is one of the factors that affects the levels of mortality from COVID-19. To increase detectability, one ought to test all individuals with respiratory symptoms seeking medical care for SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to undertake additional measures to increase the volume of testing for SARS-CoV-2. Such measures, in combination with quarantine for infected cases and their close contacts help to mitigate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and diminish the related mortality.

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Edward Goldstein. 2020-10-25. Detectability of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection and rates of mortality from the novel coronavirus infection in different regions of the Russian Federation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.02962

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