Economic irreversibility in pandemic control processes: Rigorous modeling of delayed countermeasures and consequential cost increases

Abstract

After the first lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, many countries faced difficulties in balancing infection control with economics. Due to limited prior knowledge, economists began researching this issue using cost-benefit analysis and found that infection control processes significantly affect economic efficiency. A UK study used economic parameters to numerically demonstrate an optimal balance in the process, including keeping the infected population stationary. However, universally applicable knowledge, which is indispensable for the guiding principles of infection control, has not yet been clearly developed because of the methodological limitations of simulation studies. Here, we propose a simple model and theoretically prove the universal result of economic irreversibility by applying the idea of thermodynamics to pandemic control. This means that delaying infection control measures is more expensive than implementing infection control measures early while keeping infected populations stationary. This implies that once the infected population increases, society cannot return to its previous state without extra expenditures. This universal result is analytically obtained by focusing on the infection-spreading phase of pandemics, and is applicable not just to COVID-19, regardless of "herd immunity." It also confirms the numerical observation of stationary infected populations in its optimally efficient process. Our findings suggest that economic irreversibility is a guiding principle for balancing infection control with economic effects.