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arXiv · 2010.15943

The Hot Hand and Its Effect on the NBA

Brian McNair·Eric Margolin·Michael Law·Ya'acov Ritov
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Abstract

This paper aims to revisit and expand upon previous work on the "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball, specifically in the NBA. Using larger, modern data sets, we test streakiness of shooting patterns and the presence of hot hand behavior in free throw shooting, while going further by examining league-wide hot hand trends and the changes in individual player behavior. Additionally, we perform simulations in order to assess their power. While we find no evidence of the hot hand in game-play and only weak evidence in free throw trials, we find that some NBA players exhibit behavioral changes based on the outcome of their previous shot.

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Brian McNair, Eric Margolin, Michael Law, Ya'acov Ritov. 2020-10-29. The Hot Hand and Its Effect on the NBA. https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.15943

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