A Program for Multi-Messenger Standard Siren Cosmology in the Era of LIGO A+, Rubin Observatory, and Beyond

Abstract

The most promising variation of the standard siren technique combines gravitational-wave (GW) data for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers with redshift measurements enabled by their electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, to constrain cosmological parameters such as $H_0$, $Ω_m$, and $w_0$. Here we evaluate the near- and long-term prospects of multi-messenger cosmology in the era of future GW observatories: Advanced LIGO Plus (A+, 2025), Voyager-like detectors (2030s), and Cosmic Explorer-like detectors (CE, 2035 and beyond). We show that the BNS horizon distance of $\approx 700$ Mpc for A+ is well-matched to the sensitivity of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (VRO) for kilonova detections. We find that one year of joint A+ and VRO observations will constrain the value of $H_0$ to percent-level precision, given a small investment of VRO time dedicated to target-of-opportunity GW follow-up. In the Voyager era, the BNS-kilonova observations begin to constrain $Ω_m$ with an investment of a few percent of VRO time. With the larger BNS horizon distance in the Cosmic Explorer era, on-axis short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) and their afterglows (though accompanying only some of the GW-detected mergers) supplant kilonovae as the most promising counterparts for redshift identification. We show that five years of joint observations with Cosmic Explorer-like facilities and a next-generation gamma-ray satellite with localization capabilities similar to that presently possible with Swift could constrain both $Ω_m$ and $w_0$ to $15-20\%$. We therefore advocate for a robust target-of-opportunity (ToO) program with VRO, and a wide-field gamma-ray satellite with improved sensitivity in the 2030s, to enable standard siren cosmology with next-generation gravitational wave facilities.