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arXiv · 2011.04316

Finite-size scaling versus dual random variables and shadow moments in the size distribution of epidemics

Alvaro Corral
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Abstract

I discuss and criticize the use of "dual transformations" to calculate "shadow moments" in the distribution of epidemic fatalities. I show how this transformation is arbitrary and not only yields an unjustified functional form for the distribution of fatalities but turns out to be highly unphysical (see Fig. 1 in the manuscript). Therefore, the expected number of fatalities calculated from the "shadow moments" approach lacks any theoretical support. This is of fundamental importance to assess risk from pandemics. I argue that the natural way to address this sort of problems in statistical physics is by means of finite-size scaling.

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Alvaro Corral. 2020-11-09. Finite-size scaling versus dual random variables and shadow moments in the size distribution of epidemics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.04316

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