The Data Forecast in COVID-19 Model with Applications to US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy

Bo-Cyuan Lin; Yen-Jia Chen; Yi-Cheng Hung; Chun-sheng Chen; Han-Chun Wang; Jann-Long Chern

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arXiv · 2011.04738

The Data Forecast in COVID-19 Model with Applications to US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy

Bo-Cyuan Lin·Yen-Jia Chen·Yi-Cheng Hung·Chun-sheng Chen·Han-Chun Wang·Jann-Long Chern

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Abstract

In this paper, we firstly propose SQIARD and SIARD models to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 with quarantine, infected and asymptomatic infected, and discuss the relation between the respective basic reproduction number $R_0, R_Q$ and the stability of the equilibrium points of model. Secondly, after training the related data parameters, in our numerical simulations, we respectively conduct the forecast of the data of US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy, and the effect of prediction of the epidemic situation in each country. Furthermore, we apply US data to compare SQIARD with SIARD, and display the effects of predictions.

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Bo-Cyuan Lin, Yen-Jia Chen, Yi-Cheng Hung, Chun-sheng Chen, Han-Chun Wang, Jann-Long Chern. 2020-11-05. The Data Forecast in COVID-19 Model with Applications to US, South Korea, Brazil, India, Russia and Italy. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.04738

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