Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis

Brandon Tay Kaiheng; Carvalho Andrea Roby; Jodi Wu Wenjiang; Da Yang Tan

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arXiv · 2011.11920

Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis

Brandon Tay Kaiheng·Carvalho Andrea Roby·Jodi Wu Wenjiang·Da Yang Tan

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Abstract

We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80 - 100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify what is called a point of no return, a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values.

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Brandon Tay Kaiheng, Carvalho Andrea Roby, Jodi Wu Wenjiang, Da Yang Tan. 2020-11-24. Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.11920

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