Diffusion Approximations for Self-excited Systems with Applications to General Branching Processes

Abstract

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled density process behaves asymptotically like a multi-type continuous-state branching process with immigration, which is the unique solution to a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation with dynamical mechanism similar to that of multivariate Hawkes processes. To illustrate the strength of these limit results, we further establish diffusion approximations for multi-type Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes counted with various characteristics by linking them to marked Hawkes shot noise processes. In particular, an interesting phenomenon in queueing theory, well-known as state space collapse, is observed in the behavior of the population structure at a large time scale. This phenomenon reveals that the rescaled complex biological system can be recovered from its population process by a lifting map.