Causal Gradient Boosting: Boosted Instrumental Variable Regression

Abstract

Recent advances in the literature have demonstrated that standard supervised learning algorithms are ill-suited for problems with endogenous explanatory variables. To correct for the endogeneity bias, many variants of nonparameteric instrumental variable regression methods have been developed. In this paper, we propose an alternative algorithm called boostIV that builds on the traditional gradient boosting algorithm and corrects for the endogeneity bias. The algorithm is very intuitive and resembles an iterative version of the standard 2SLS estimator. Moreover, our approach is data driven, meaning that the researcher does not have to make a stance on neither the form of the target function approximation nor the choice of instruments. We demonstrate that our estimator is consistent under mild conditions. We carry out extensive Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate the finite sample performance of our algorithm compared to other recently developed methods. We show that boostIV is at worst on par with the existing methods and on average significantly outperforms them.