Alternative expression for the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones

Abstract

Emanuel's concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters. At the point of maximum wind, E-PI's key equation relates proportionally the centrifugal acceleration (squared maximum velocity divided by radius) to the radial gradient of saturated moist entropy. The proportionality coefficient depends on the outflow temperature. Here it is shown that a different relationship between the same quantities derives straightforwardly from the gradient-wind balance and the definition of entropy, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the radial gradient of local air temperature. The robust alternative reveals a previously unexplored constraint: for E-PI to be valid, the outflow temperature should be a function of the radial temperature gradient at the point of maximum wind. When the air is horizontally isothermal (which, as we argue, is not an uncommon condition), this constraint cannot be satisfied, and E-PI's key equation underestimates the squared maximum velocity by approximately twofold. This explains "superintensity" (maximum wind speeds exceeding E-PI). The new formulation predicts less superintensity at higher temperatures, corroborating recent numerical simulations. Previous analyses are re-evaluated to reveal inconsistent support for the explanation of superintensity by supergradient winds alone. In Hurricane Isabel 2003, maximum superintensity is found to be associated with minimal gradient-wind imbalance. Modified to diagnostically account for supergradient winds, the new formulation shows that air temperature increasing towards the storm center can mask the effect of gradient-wind imbalance, thus reducing "superintensity" and formally bringing E-PI closer to observations. The implications of these findings for assessing real storms are discussed.