SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2102.08854

Detectability of continuous gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars in the Milky Way: the population synthesis approach

Abstract

Aims. We estimate the number of pulsars, detectable as continuous gravitational wave sources with the current and future gravitational-wave detectors, assuming a simple phenomenological model of evolving non-axisymmetry of the rotating neutron star. Methods. We employ a numerical model of the Galactic neutron star population, with the properties established by comparison with radio observations of isolated Galactic pulsars. We generate an arbitrarily large synthetic population of neutron stars and evolve their period, magnetic field, and position in space. We use a gravitational wave emission model based on exponentially decaying ellipticity - a non-axisymmetry of the star, with no assumption of the origin of a given ellipticity. We calculate the expected signal in a given detector for a 1 year observations and assume a detection criterion of the signal-to-noise ratio of 11.4 - comparable to a targeted continous wave search. We analyze the population detectable separately in each detector: Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and the planned Einstein Telescope. In the calculation of the expected signal we neglect signals frequency change due to the source spindown and the Earth motion with respect to the Solar barycentre. Results. With conservative values for the neutron stars evolution: supernova rate once per 100 years, initial ellipticity $\epsilon_{0}$ = 1e-5 with no decay of the ellipticity $\eta$ = $t_\rm{hub}$ = 1e4 Myr, the expected number of detected neutron stars is below one: 0.15 (based on a simulation of 10 M stars) for the Advanced LIGO detector. A broader study of the parameter space ($\epsilon_{0}$ , $\eta$) is presented. With the planned sensitivity for the Einstein Telescope, and assuming the same ellipiticity model, the expected detection number is: 26.4 pulsars during a 1-year long observing run.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Marek Cieślar, Tomasz Bulik, Małgorzata Curyło, Magdalena Sieniawska, Neha Singh, Michał Bejger. 2021-02-17. Detectability of continuous gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars in the Milky Way: the population synthesis approach. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202039503

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc