Mean Field Models to Regulate Carbon Emissions in Electricity Production

Rene Carmona; Gokce Dayanikli; Mathieu Lauriere

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2102.09434

Mean Field Models to Regulate Carbon Emissions in Electricity Production

Rene Carmona·Gokce Dayanikli·Mathieu Lauriere

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The most serious threat to ecosystems is the global climate change fueled by the uncontrolled increase in carbon emissions. In this project, we use mean field control and mean field game models to analyze and inform the decisions of electricity producers on how much renewable sources of production ought to be used in the presence of a carbon tax. The trade-off between higher revenues from production and the negative externality of carbon emissions is quantified for each producer who needs to balance in real time reliance on reliable but polluting (fossil fuel) thermal power stations versus investing in and depending upon clean production from uncertain wind and solar technologies. We compare the impacts of these decisions in two different scenarios: 1) the producers are competitive and hopefully reach a Nash Equilibrium; 2) they cooperate and reach a Social Optimum. We first prove that both problems have a unique solution using forward-backward systems of stochastic differential equations. We then illustrate with numerical experiments the producers' behavior in each scenario. We further introduce and analyze the impact of a regulator in control of the carbon tax policy, and we study the resulting Stackelberg equilibrium with the field of producers.

Explore related subjects

math.OC

Keep this discovery

BibTeX RIS

Rene Carmona, Gokce Dayanikli, Mathieu Lauriere. 2021-02-18. Mean Field Models to Regulate Carbon Emissions in Electricity Production. https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.09434

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Deterministic and Random Bipartite Matching on General Networks: Convex Flow Reformulation, Asymptotic Properties, and Fast Algorithms

Minimum-distance bipartite matching on general networks has numerous applications various fields. This paper first focuses on deterministic problems and presents an exact edgewise-separable convex-flow reformulation. By introducing a smooth monotone rearrangement approximation of the edge-wise imbalance profiles, the convex-flow reformulation's can be solved efficiently. If we further conduct a first-order resistance-based approximation of the convex program, a one-step Laplacian-based estimator can be analytically derived in closed forms. The paper also studies random problems where supply and demand points are randomly distributed. We show that the expected optimal matching distance scales with the square root of the number of points if the supply/demand point distributions are identical, or linearly otherwise. In the former case, the optimal flow is proven to be centered, symmetric, and sub-Gaussian. In the latter case, the limiting resistance network characterizes how supply-demand imbalance is redistributed and motivates a fast algorithm that approximate the optimal flow based on the limiting resistance. Numerical experiments show that the proposed estimators closely approximate the exact matching cost while substantially reducing computation time. The proven theoretical properties of the random matching solution are numerically verified by large-scale Monte Carlo simulations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Conformal-DRO: Distributionally Robust Optimization with Conformalized Ambiguity Set

Data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) typically treats the conditional outcome law as fixed and uses ambiguity sets to capture estimation error. This paper studies latent distributional heterogeneity, where each instance has an unobserved law but contributes only one observation, so uncertainty persists even if the mixture law is known. We propose Conformal-DRO, which uses nested conformal regions to construct an ambiguity set for the future latent law. Under exchangeability, the set covers this law with probability at least $1-\alpha$ in finite samples, without estimating underlying latent laws or their mixing mechanism. The conformal path induces a data-driven transport geometry, while $\alpha$ determines the radius. The worst-case problem reduces to a finite linear program over conformal shells and admits sparse adversarial solutions. The resulting robust value provides a finite-sample certificate for the selected decision's expected cost.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

The best approximation tuple: an extension of the Cheney-Goldstein algorithm and results to the multiple sets case

In this paper we extend the algorithm and several results published in the celebrated 1959 paper of Cheney and Goldstein about the best approximation pair (BAP) problem in two separate directions. One is the consideration of more than two sets. The other is the ability to handle each set as an intersections of a finite family of sets. We call the resulting problem the "Best Approximation Tuple (BAT) problem". The fundamental observation that leads to this generalizations is to recognize and handle one set (the "pivot set") as different from the remaining sets (the "satellite sets") instead of seeking cycles as the minimizers of a target functional. This enable us to overcome a certain theoretical obstacle related to cycles and minimizers of general functionals. We prove the convergence of the algorithm to the unique solution of the problem in the Euclidean case with strictly convex and compact satellite sets. Because of the lack of Fej\'er monotonicity, our convergence analysis is not standard, and is based on almost unknown properties of orthogonal projections regarding equality and inequality in the definition of nonexpansiveness.

math.OC↗