Oil and Gas Reservoirs Parameters Analysis Using Mixed Learning of Bayesian Networks

Abstract

In this paper, a multipurpose Bayesian-based method for data analysis, causal inference and prediction in the sphere of oil and gas reservoir development is considered. This allows analysing parameters of a reservoir, discovery dependencies among parameters (including cause and effects relations), checking for anomalies, prediction of expected values of missing parameters, looking for the closest analogues, and much more. The method is based on extended algorithm MixLearn@BN for structural learning of Bayesian networks. Key ideas of MixLearn@BN are following: (1) learning the network structure on homogeneous data subsets, (2) assigning a part of the structure by an expert, and (3) learning the distribution parameters on mixed data (discrete and continuous). Homogeneous data subsets are identified as various groups of reservoirs with similar features (analogues), where similarity measure may be based on several types of distances. The aim of the described technique of Bayesian network learning is to improve the quality of predictions and causal inference on such networks. Experimental studies prove that the suggested method gives a significant advantage in missing values prediction and anomalies detection accuracy. Moreover, the method was applied to the database of more than a thousand petroleum reservoirs across the globe and allowed to discover novel insights in geological parameters relationships.