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arXiv · 2103.14298

Superiority of mild interventions against COVID-19 on public health and economic measures

Makoto Niwa·Yasushi Hara·Yusuke Matsuo·Hodaka Narita·Lim Yeongjoo·Shintaro Sengoku·Kota Kodama
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Abstract

During the global spread of COVID-19, Japan has been among the top countries to maintain a relatively low number of infections, despite implementing limited institutional interventions. Using a Tokyo Metropolitan dataset, this study investigated how these limited intervention policies have affected public health and economic conditions in the COVID-19 context. A causal loop analysis suggested that there were risks to prematurely terminating such interventions. On the basis of this result and subsequent quantitative modelling, we found that the short-term effectiveness of a short-term pre-emptive stay-at-home request caused a resurgence in the number of positive cases, whereas an additional request provided a limited negative add-on effect for economic measures (e.g. the number of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) communications and restaurant visits). These findings suggest the superiority of a mild and continuous intervention as a long-term countermeasure under epidemic pressures when compared to strong intermittent interventions.

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Makoto Niwa, Yasushi Hara, Yusuke Matsuo, Hodaka Narita, Lim Yeongjoo, Shintaro Sengoku, Kota Kodama. 2021-03-26. Superiority of mild interventions against COVID-19 on public health and economic measures. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.14298

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