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arXiv · 2104.05560

Hospitalisation risk for COVID-19 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: cohort analysis

Tommy Nyberg·Katherine A. Twohig·Ross J. Harris·Shaun R. Seaman·Joe Flannagan·Hester Allen·Andre Charlett·Daniela De Angelis·Gavin Dabrera·Anne M. Presanis
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Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 (also known as Variant of Concern 202012/01) and the risk of hospitalisation compared to diagnosis with wildtype SARS-CoV-2 variants. Design: Retrospective cohort, analysed using stratified Cox regression. Setting: Community-based SARS-CoV-2 testing in England, individually linked with hospitalisation data. Participants: 839,278 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients, of whom 36,233 had been hospitalised within 14 days, tested between 23rd November 2020 and 31st January 2021 and analysed at a laboratory with an available TaqPath assay that enables assessment of S-gene target failure (SGTF). SGTF is a proxy test for the B.1.1.7 variant. Patient data were stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, region of residence, and date of positive test. Main outcome measures: Hospitalisation between 1 and 14 days after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Results: 27,710 of 592,409 SGTF patients (4.7%) and 8,523 of 246,869 non-SGTF patients (3.5%) had been hospitalised within 1-14 days. The stratum-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of hospitalisation was 1.52 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.47 to 1.57) for COVID-19 patients infected with SGTF variants, compared to those infected with non-SGTF variants. The effect was modified by age (P<0.001), with HRs of 0.93-1.21 for SGTF compared to non-SGTF patients below age 20 years, 1.29 in those aged 20-29, and 1.45-1.65 in age groups 30 years or older. Conclusions: The results suggest that the risk of hospitalisation is higher for individuals infected with the B.1.1.7 variant compared to wildtype SARS-CoV-2, likely reflecting a more severe disease. The higher severity may be specific to adults above the age of 30.

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Tommy Nyberg, Katherine A. Twohig, Ross J. Harris, Shaun R. Seaman, Joe Flannagan, Hester Allen, Andre Charlett, Daniela De Angelis, Gavin Dabrera, Anne M. Presanis. 2021-04-12. Hospitalisation risk for COVID-19 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: cohort analysis. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n1412

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