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arXiv · 2104.05597

Preemptive periodic epidemic control reduces life and healthcare system costs without aggravation of social and economic losses

Giuseppe De Nicolao·Marta Colaneri·Alessandro Di Filippo·Franco Blanchini·Paolo Bolzern·Patrizio Colaneri·Giulia Giordano·Raffaele Bruno
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Abstract

Many countries are managing COVID-19 epidemic by switching between lighter and heavier restrictions. While an open-close and a close-open cycle have comparable socio-economic costs, the former leads to a much heavier burden in terms of deaths and pressure on the healthcare system. An empirical demonstration of the toll ensuing from procrastination was recently observed in Israel, where both cycles were enforced from late August to mid-December 2020, yielding some 1,600 deaths with open-close compared to 440 with close-open.

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Giuseppe De Nicolao, Marta Colaneri, Alessandro Di Filippo, Franco Blanchini, Paolo Bolzern, Patrizio Colaneri, Giulia Giordano, Raffaele Bruno. 2021-04-06. Preemptive periodic epidemic control reduces life and healthcare system costs without aggravation of social and economic losses. https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.05597

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