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arXiv · 2105.09424

A novel mathematical analysis and threshold reinforcement of a stochastic dengue epidemic model with L\'evy jumps

Driss Kiouach·Salim El Azami El-idrissi·Yassine Sabbar
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Abstract

The rampant phenomenon of overpopulation and the remarkable increase of human movements over the last decade have caused an aggressive re-emergence of dengue fever, which made it the subject of several research fields. In this regard, mathematical modeling, and notably through compartmental systems, is considered as an eminent tool to obtain a clear overview of this disease's prevalence behavior. In reality, and like all epidemics, the dengue spread phenomenon is often subject to some randomness due to the different natural environment fluctuations. For this reason, a mathematical formulation that considers suitably as much as possible the external stochasticity is indeed required. By this token, we strive in this work to present and analyze a generalized stochastic dengue model that incorporates both slight and huge environmental perturbations. More precisely, our proposed model is represented under the form of an It\^o-L\'evy stochastic differential equations system that we demonstrate its mathematical well-posedness and biological significance. Based on some novel analytical techniques, we prove, and under appropriate hypothetical frameworks, of course, two important asymptotic properties, namely: extinction and persistence in the mean. The theoretical findings show that the dynamics of our disturbed dengue model are mainly determined by the parameters that are narrowly related to the small perturbations' intensities and the jumps magnitudes. In the end, we give certain numerical illustrative examples to support our theoretical findings and to highlight the effect of the adopted mathematical techniques on the results.

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Driss Kiouach, Salim El Azami El-idrissi, Yassine Sabbar. 2021-05-19. A novel mathematical analysis and threshold reinforcement of a stochastic dengue epidemic model with L\'evy jumps. https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09424

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