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arXiv · 2105.10934

Mobility strategies based on percolation theory to avoid the spread of diseases: COVID-19

Diana Rosales Herrera·J. E. Ramírez·Jorge Velázquez-Castro·Bogar Díaz·M. I. Martínez·P. Vázquez Juárez·A. Fernández Téllez
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Abstract

Human mobility is an important factor in the propagation of infectious diseases. In particular, the spatial spread of a disease is a consequence of human mobility. On the other hand, the control strategies based on mobility restrictions are generally unpopular and costly. These high social and economic costs make it very important to design global protocols where the cost is minimized and effects maximized. In this work, we calculate the percolation threshold of the spread in a network of a disease. In particular, we found the number of roads to close and regions to isolate in the Puebla State, Mexico, to avoid the global spread of COVID-19. Computational simulations taking into account the proposed strategy show a potential reduction of 94% of infections. This methodology can be used in broader and different areas to help in the design of health policies. -- La movilidad de las personas es uno de los principales factores que propician la propagaci\'on de epidemias. En particular, es el factor que genera el esparcimiento de la enfermedad en diferentes regiones. Las medidas de control epidemiol\'ogico basadas en la restricci\'on de movilidad son generalmente poco populares y las consecuencias econ\'omicas pueden llegar a ser muy grandes. Debido a los altos costos de estas medidas, es de gran relevancia tener estrategias globales que optimicen las medidas minimizando los costos. En este trabajo, se calcula el umbral de percolaci\'on de la propagaci\'on de enfermedades en redes. De manera particular, se encuentra el n\'umero de caminos a restringir y localidades que tienen que ser aisladas para limitar la propagaci\'on global de COVID-19 en el Estado de Puebla, M\'exico. Simulaciones computacionales donde se implementan las medidas de restricci\'on de movilidad entre los diferentes municipios, junto con las medidas de confinamiento, muestran que es posible reducir un 94% de la poblaci\'on afectada comparado con el caso en el que no se implementa ninguna medida. Esta metodolog\'ia puede ser aplicada a distintas zonas para ayudar a las autoridades de salud en la toma de decisiones.

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BibTeXRIS

Diana Rosales Herrera, J. E. Ramírez, Jorge Velázquez-Castro, Bogar Díaz, M. I. Martínez, P. Vázquez Juárez, A. Fernández Téllez. 2021-05-23. Mobility strategies based on percolation theory to avoid the spread of diseases: COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.31349/revmexfis.68.011701

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